Winter forecasts place question mark over holiday getaways

With the winter of 2010 punctuated by long periods of heavy snow, ice and below average temperatures, there has been much focus on long and medium range forecasts for the coming winter season. The travel industry in particular is watching weather forecasts closely, following last year’s widespread disruption and the resulting financial impact. The snow hit during one of the busiest weekends of the year, when traditionally many holiday-goers jet off to spend the festive period abroad.

Heavy snow fell just days before Christmas in 2010, bringing London Heathrow airport to a virtual standstill. It was estimated that around 400,000 flight passengers were stranded, delayed or diverted from Heathrow whilst neighbouring Gatwick airport struggled with a severely reduced service. During December, the heavy snowfall was estimated to have cost British Airways alone between 8 and 10 million pounds a day due to loss of services, with many other airlines also absorbing significant losses due to the adverse weather.

Piers Corbyn of Weather Action describes this year’s long-range winter forecast as a “difficult call”, but for winter 2011 has alluded to shorter periods of disruption due to snowfall. Corbyn analyses solar activity and how it impacts climate patterns, and last year saw his predictions of the coldest winter in 100 years realised. His latest medium range winter forecast points to further periods of severe cold weather and snow.

Medium-range forecasts are also now becoming available, helping to form a picture of whether the coming winter has more disruption in store for the UK’s airline, holiday and tourism industries. 

In his blog, BBC weather presenter Paul Hudson suggests that data from the latest European Centre for Medium Range Forecasting (ECMRF) implies that close to average winter temperatures could be on the cards. He also describes the likelihood of a bout of higher than average pressure, which points to a drier winter, but importantly also mentions that “… on the balance of probabilities a colder than average winter is the most likely scenario. This would mean some disruption due to snow, but not as extreme or long lived as last year.”

Hudson does, however, concede that a milder winter shouldn’t be ruled out altogether. So for those looking to book a luxury holiday abroad, there still seems to be some debate as to whether severe travel disruptions should be a bona fide concern this coming holiday season.